At a Monday press conference, held at Farmingdale State College, Nassau and Suffolk County Executives joined with high ranking federal officials and the Long Island Power Authority (LIPA) made a pledge to appeal the recently released U.S. Census data.
This action represents the first time that either county has appealed Census Bureau estimates. According to the Long Island Regional Planning Board (LIRPB), Suffolk and Nassau combined could potentially have lost approximately $165 million in aid due to an undercount in the last official Census count in 2000. Population figures from that Census study were used in aid applications through the year 2007—and while aid from those years is likely not recoverable, both executives promised an all-out effort to ensure that the scenario is not repeated.
“Every shred of evidence points to the fact that Suffolk is growing at a much higher rate than the Census Bureau estimates,” said Suffolk County Executive Steve Levy, pointing to a drop in the housing vacancy rate and a rise in new housing units built since 2000. “We plan to make Washington well aware of this fact, and we will fight for money that rightfully should go to Long Island.”
“Long Islanders already send billions more to Albany and Washington in taxes than we get back in aid,” said Nassau County Executive Tom Suozzi. “We cannot sit back and be robbed of assistance that is vital to the sustainability of Long Island. I will do whatever I can to ensure that Nassau County residents are not cheated out of federal aid. I hope the U.S. Census Bureau will re-evaluate Long Island’s population numbers and realize that Nassau and Suffolk Counties’ populations are not decreasing, but in fact, that our population is growing.”
The Census Bureau released its updated figures in March, using its Administrative Records Component Method to estimate the population of Suffolk County for 2007 at 1,453,229, an increase of 33,860 from the last official census in 2000. For Nassau, the Census Bureau estimated that over that same period, the county’s population declined by 28,011, dropping to 1,306,533.
These figures vary substantially from those of LIPA, which calculates its numbers based on a count of active electric units at occupied housing units. LIPA estimates that Suffolk’s population has increased by 85,578 since 2000, to 1,504,947. For Nassau, LIPA estimates that the population actually increased by 19,990, rising to 1,354,534.
Suffolk and Nassau officials said the Census methodology for estimating population is passive because it largely is based on examining paperwork. The LIPA approach is considered to be active, more hands on, and therefore more reliable.
According to LIRPB chief planner Seth Forman, the Census Bureau’s method of determining population may also lack in accounting for immigrants from abroad; college students; young adults beginning a career; military personnel, and new arrivals in communities of growth.
“The census bureau needs to do an about face and ensure that Nassau and Suffolk don’t lose one nickel in federal funding because of this mistake,” said U.S. Senator Charles E. Schumer. “This estimate is too important to get wrong and, with county budgets already stretched to the limit, leaving out thousands of Long Island residents could cost Long Island millions. We are going to fight tooth and nail to get this reversed.”
Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton, who has written to the U.S. Census Bureau in support of Nassau and Suffolk’s challenge, said, “The census is an important tool in providing an accurate picture of population, and I am very concerned that Nassau and Suffolk may have had their populations undercounted. Census data is more than just a picture of the population, it is used to determine critical federal funding levels. The concerns of Nassau and Suffolk counties must be addressed. The Census Bureau should seriously consider their challenge and I will continue to work with them to ensure Long Island gets the federal money it deserves.”
LIPA President and CEO Kevin S. Law pledged, “If LIPA population survey data serves as the basis for the counties’ challenge to the 2007 Census estimates, and may result in a significant increase in federal reimbursement dollars coming back to Long Island, then we are happy to assist.”
Long Island’s economy could suffer in numerous ways from inaccurate population estimates, officials said. All major businesses and franchises use regional population numbers to determine the viability of opening up new markets and the availability of workers for new plants and operations. A lower population representation could lead to the outsourcing of these potential businesses. In addition, the Long Island region’s political representation at the federal and state levels could be adversely affected by consistently lower population estimates.
The LIRPB believes that undercounted Census data could potentially have cost Suffolk County up to $85.5 million and Nassau $79.3 million in federal aid over the past eight years. Those losses could continue and perhaps grow in the years ahead, officials said, if the Census Bureau does not agree to adjust its estimates.
According to the LIRPB, 30,367 building permits were issued in Suffolk between 2000 and 2007. Given Suffolk’s homeowner vacancy rate of 1.4 percent and rental vacancy rate of 5.1 percent, the county most likely gained 80,000 to 90,000 people during that timeframe, planning officials believe. In Nassau, 9,346 building permits were issued between 2000 and 2007. With a homeowner vacancy rate of 1.2 percent and a rental vacancy rate of 6.6 percent, the direction of Nassau’s population would appear to be moving up, not down, planning officials said. They estimated a gain of 26,000 people in Nassau between 2000 and 2007, and perhaps as many as 30,000.
Officials from Suffolk and Nassau said they anticipate completing their Census challenge paperwork within the next few weeks, well in advance of an October 1 deadline. The appeal will be made directly to the Census Bureau and will include a letter detailing the counties’ case plus the LIPA statistics.
Although only one data source is required by law to challenge the Census Bureau estimates, Suffolk and Nassau may use additional information. The counties may provide utility records, certificates of occupancy and data that show an increase in the number of building permits.
To view the 2007 Long Island Power Authority Population Survey click here:
